TRP NEWS, May/June 1997 Edited for web site publication

El Toro Airport Economic Study Attacked as Biased and Unscientific

Over 100 TRP members attending the May general meeting were treated to a detailed attack on the economic studies used to justify an airport at El Toro. Eric Chase presented his analysis of data from the County's Environme ntal Impact Report (EIR) and his conclusion is that the numbers just do not make sense.

The airport proponents have long based their arguments on the hopes of a "job machine" that will take Orange County into the next century. Chase's analysis shows that this simply is not the case, that non-aviation uses ex ceed the potential of an airport both in future revenue and in jobs production.

With regard to jobs, the County's own studies show the superiority of non-aviation uses. Their data shows that non-aviation uses will create over 55,000 new jobs, 40,000 of them classified as "high paying." On the other h and, the airport produces only 35,000 new jobs, with only 17,000 classified as high paying.

The County tried to manipulate these numbers by saying that only 27,000 non-aviation jobs would be created by the year 2020, while all 35,000 airport jobs were created by this time.

The flaw in this analysis is that the County "forgot" to take into account approximately 4,000 jobs lost by the closing of John Wayne Airport, proposed to happen by the year 2015. When this proposal is taken into account, both the airport and non-aviation uses create the same number of jobs by 2020. After 2020 an airport ceases to produce jobs, while alternative uses produce another 25,000 high paying jobs.

With regard to economic benefit to the County, the case for non-aviation uses is more dramatic. The County study showed their mega-airport with a benefit of $9.9 billion and non-aviation benefits of $9.6 billion.

Once again, the County falsely estimated the length of time to build non-aviation uses, claiming that 2020 would see only $4.2 billion in benefits. County planners selectively used data developed by the Concord Group on a irport feasibility - ignoring the conclusion that a no airport venue would be completely developed by 2020 and that these uses would eclipse airport uses.

The County also ignored the obvious natural expansion of John Wayne Airport to its physical capacity as a source of economic benefits for the non-aviation proposals. This expansion would bring in an additional $1.5 billion in revenue to the County.

The County also failed to consider that allowing development on only one-third of the currently protected zone surrounding El Toro would add another $9.6 billion in benefits for the no airport alternative.

A final factor was that the Board of Supervisors, in approving the EIR, reduced the size of the proposed airport. This reduces the potential airport benefit is by $1.3 billion.

The net result of Mr. Chase's analysis is that the "no airport" benefits exceed "airport" benefits -- $20.7 billion to $8.6 billion.

ETRPA to Study Non-Aviation Uses

On April 28, the El Toro Reuse Planning Authority (ETPRA), a coalition of seven south Orange County cities, voted to direct a comprehensive study of non-aviation uses for MCAS El Toro.

ETRPA intends to invite all interested parties to be part of this effort to guarantee that all uses are fully and fairly explored. Experts in the fields of land use planning and economics will be utilized to guarantee th at the study is scientifically sound.

TRP has been invited to join this effort and is reviewing the proposed methodology.

Airport Supporters Upset by TRP Activities

Two recent communications from the supporters of the El Toro airport show how the grassroots efforts to defeat their plans are succeeding.

The first item is a flyer from the Orange County Business Council, a long time supporter of the airport. Labeled a "Faxalert Bulletin", this piece urges letters of support to counter the efforts of "airport opponents (who ) are mobilizing in a big way. . ."

In a similar vein, the Airport Working Group from Newport Beach recently asked its supporters to write to the Board of Supervisors because ". . . they receive about twenty times more communication from South County than from us."

"What this means is simple - we are winning the battle of the people. The fact is that, except for the residents of Newport Beach, support for an airport at El Toro is very weak in this County. Our opposition is strong an d it's growing daily. We scare them, and rightly so," said TRP Co-Chairman Denny Harris.

"No Jets!" Fundraiser Scheduled

Airport opponents from the coastal communities are holding a fundraising event on July 9 to support the TRP lawsuit against the airport. The event will be held at the Ritz-Carlton hotel from 5:30 to 7:00 PM. The festiviti es will include wine, cheese and hors d'oeuvres and presentations about the legal and planning progress in the airport fight. Jess Marlowe, longtime NBC anchorman and a resident of Monarch Bay, will emcee the presentations.

Net proceeds from NO JETS! will be directed to the TRP Legal Defense and Education Fund to help pay for our ongoing legal expenses. For further information or to order tickets, call 493-5557. Tickets are priced at $100 ea ch.

Leisure World Fundraiser "Fun and Successful"

Many of the TRP members of Leisure World attended a fundraising dinner and entertainment event on April 27. This was the third fundraiser in the last two years sponsored by our members in Leisure World.

"We all had a great time and, as usual, we had a complete sell-out. The residents of Leisure World remain enthusiastically committed to stopping the airport and to preserving our community and our way of life," said Bert Hack, TRP Co-Chairman and one of the organizers of this event.

Airport Backer Argyros Sued by Leisure World

On May 8, 1997, three Leisure World homeowners associations and 35 past and present board members filed a lawsuit against George Argyros, chief backer of an airport at El Toro. The suit alleges that Argyros is the secret backer of a lawsuit filed last year against the associations and TRP. That earlier suit was designed to harass the airport opponents and to squelch opposition to the airport.

The suit seeks over $1 million in damages and legal fees. "Although TRP is a defendant in the earlier suit, we have no involvement in this action. Still, we applaud the resolve and the actions of our Leisure World friends," said Bill Kogerman, TRP Co-Chairman.

Keep the Pressure On - Call and Write Today

TRP members are doing the job of influencing our elected officials. As the story at the left details, our opponents say we are beating them by "about twenty times." Let's increase this margin of victory and make our leade rs find the best use for El Toro. In this newsletter is an insert with the names, addresses, phone numbers and fax numbers of the key people who will decide the future of El Toro.

Call and write today. Keep showing them you care!

UNITED STATES SENATE

Mr. Bill Kogerman
Co-Chairman
Taxpayers for Responsible Planning
PO Box 943
El Toro, CA 92630

Dear Bill:

I am pleased that we had the opportunity while I was in San Diego to discuss various issues of concern to you regarding the proposed re-use of El Toro Marine Base.

Let me again repeat my commitment to assist residents of the communities surrounding the base in your efforts to ensure that the federal environmental review process is thorough and based on accurate information. I do no t want to see the quality of life negatively affected by an improper re-use of El Toro, and the first step is for the Department of the Navy to produce an impartial, thorough and scientifically sound Environmental Impact Statement.

My staff is currently working with local residents and cities developing information to convey to high level Department of Defense officials the importance of the integrity of the environmental review process. I look for ward to working with you further on this issue.

MAKE SURE YOUR MEMBERSHIP IS CURRENT

WRITE TO TRP

P.O. Box 943, El Toro, CA 92630 (714) 770-4014



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